Antimony demand has seen several downturns this year, but prices remain high. Official May trade data shows that imports of antimony concentrate to China are down 44% year-on-year, causing stocks to be drawn down quickly.

The antimony market has been underpinned by surplus supply since the arrival of by-product antimony in 2018 from one of the world’s largest gold producers, Polyus in Russia. In 2021, however, Polyus put the brakes on antimony output and amidst further supply disruptions, Chinese antimony ingot producers have been left scrambling for feed leading to pre-2018 artisanal antimony ore sources resurfacing in trade data.

Weighing against a shortage in supply is weak demand sentiment from flame retardant and polyester markets.  Demand impacts this year have included zero-COVID policy lockdowns in China, high oil prices, interest rate hikes and weaker real estate markets. Project Blue’s outlook for antimony demand is one of only modest growth, with lead-acid battery markets facing demand erosion from electric vehicles and flame retardant formulations battling against toxicity issues.

Nevertheless, supply tightness is expected to remain the key antimony market driver over much of 2022 and is currently suppressing demand. While current conditions of tight supply and higher prices are encouraging for projects, the ability of Polyus to produce over 15% of the global antimony supply in one swoop should encourage potential new entrants to proceed with caution.