Tin prices have fallen back from 2023 peaks as the market responds to the threat of supply disruption in Myanmar

Tin prices continued their retreat this week after the threat of supply disruption in Myanmar sent prices to ten-week highs. Earlier this month, a statement from the Central Economic Planning Committee of the Wa State, an autonomous self-governing polity in Myanmar which controls tin-mining areas on the border with China, suggested that all tin mining and processing activities will be suspended from the start of August to preserve resources. Prices hit US$28,000/t but have since fallen back to US$/26,000.

The Wa State controls as much as 10% of global tin concentrate supply.  Specifically, the United Wa State Army (UWSA) controls the Man Maw mining area. Given the importance of tin revenues to the group, there is some doubt as to whether the threat of mining suspension is legitimate. Meanwhile, the consensus is that inventories and additional supply from other tin-producing regions would limit the impact of a Myanmar ban.

Nonetheless, any ban would have an impact on Chinese smelters, which are large importers of Myanmar material. Imports into China have been in the 150-200ktpy range for the past few years – considerable, but well below the ~480kt 2016 peak.  Importantly, China has moved to try and reduce its dependence on Myanmar feed. Myanmar accounted for >95% of Chinese imports in 2016 but this dropped to ~75% by 2022 thanks to more imports from the DRC, Australia, Nigeria and others.