For the graphite market, China plans to tighten end-user and end-use export controls on dual-use items.

These will be significant because the USA is dependent on China for the bulk of its natural and synthetic graphite supply, both used for the steel and battery industries.  

The USA has not produced natural graphite since 1990, and in 2023, China accounted for 63% of the USA's natural graphite imports, primarily used in refractories, lubricants, castings, and brake linings.  

Alternative graphite suppliers for the USA include Canada, Mexico, Madagascar, and Mozambique.  

However, recent falling graphite prices and synthetic graphite overcapacity will not allow these producers to ramp up output to compensate for any shortfall that may be created by these Chinese export controls.  

Moreover, the USA imports 100% of its battery-grade natural graphite material from China, and the export controls could present a major risk for the US battery landscape.