Current regulations in Indonesia prohibit the export of copper concentrate as of 1 January 2025

PT Freeport Indonesia (PT-FI) has requested permission from the Indonesian government to temporarily resume concentrate exports until repairs to its new Manyar smelter, damaged in a fire in October 2024, are completed and a full ramp-up is achieved. Based on discussions with the government, PT-FI expects to restart exports by Q1 2025, subject to a 7.5% export duty.

The copper concentrate market is already tight, and key importers of Indonesian concentrate – China (38% of exports), Japan (37%), South Korea (25%), India (17%), and Spain (14%) – rely heavily on these supplies. Delays in PT-FI’s exports are worsening the shortage, further pressuring already low treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs).

While Indonesia’s policy aims to incentivise investment in domestic processing and refining industries, it has already resulted in challenges for global concentrate consumers, particularly smelters in Asia and Europe that rely on steady supplies.

PT-FI’s Grasberg mine, one of the world’s largest, produced 194.6kt of copper in Q4 2024, down 12.3% y-o-y from 221.8kt in Q4 2023. Despite this, total copper production in 2024 increased by 8.4% to 816.5kt from 753kt in 2023.