The M23 rebel group advanced into mining regions near the city of Goma in the DRC in January 2024. According to key reports, the group reached Goma on 25 January 2025, a development that could disrupt tin and coltan exports.

In the early hours of 25 January 2025, the M23 rebel group advanced toward Goma, the provincial capital of North Kivu in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). By the evening of 26 January, the group was reportedly within 9km of Goma’s city centre. Although the group subsequently claimed to have captured the city on 27 January 2025, the government stated it is still in control of key sites such as the airport.

The DRC is believed to be the primary source of global coltan production, although Rwanda is the largest exporter of the material. Much of this tantalum is considered to originate from the DRC before being transported across porous borders into Rwanda and neighbouring countries, such as the Republic of Congo. Exported material typically moves through the border town of Goma into Rwanda before being transported to ports on the East African coast.

In addition to its tantalum production, the DRC is a significant producer of tin concentrates, particularly in the North Kivu Province. Here, Alphamin Resources operates the Bisie Tin Mine complex, one of the largest tin mines in the world, consisting of the Mpama North and Mpama South mines. In 2024, Bisie produced 17.3kt of tin-in-concentrate, ranking second only to Minsur’s San Rafael mine in Peru. Alphamin Resources established a 100% off-take agreement with the US-based Gerald Group in 2017 and renewed the agreement in 2020 and again in 2024. According to the agreement, tin concentrate can be delivered free-on-truck (FOT) at three locations (Logu or Goma in the DRC or Kampala in Uganda) to counteract route disruptions.

The ongoing conflict will likely disrupt tin and coltan exports from the mineral-rich North Kivu region. Reports indicate that Goma airport and its airspace have been shut down in response to the escalating conflict. Additionally, officials have stated that all cross-border movement between the DRC and Rwanda has been halted.

While short-term delays of less than a week are generally negligible in the broader market, prolonged conflict and restricted movement across the border could significantly impact the tantalum market. Tantalum prices have remained relatively stable over the past two years, with Ta2O5 prices fluctuating by around US$1/lb m-o-m; however, the tantalum market operates on a hand-to-mouth basis. Consequently, disruptions of this magnitude could exert substantial upward pressure on prices. Meanwhile, the impact of the conflict on the tin market remains uncertain for now, with prolonged disruptions potentially leading to mounting supply pressures.