Glencore's PASAR copper smelter in the Philippines has been shut down, with a specific date to restart the operation yet to be determined

The smelter has the capacity to process about 1.2Mtpy Cu-in-concentrate, producing approximately 200kt of copper cathode per year. Additionally, reports in December 2024, indicated that Glencore may be considering selling the smelter

This shutdown comes at a time when the copper smelting industry is facing historically low processing fees. The benchmark TC/RCs for 2025 are set at US$21.50/t and 2.125c/lb, down from US$80/t and 8c/lb in 2024, marking the lowest levels in 20 years. Spot TC/RCs are likely to remain slightly lower than the December 2024 uptick, as demand recovers, and will continue to trade below the agreed contract price.

While the shutdown of the PASAR smelter will free up some concentrate, the tight concentrate market persists, maintaining pressure on TC/RCs. Freeport-McMoRan’s PT-FI Manyar smelter in Indonesia is still offline due to a fire in October 2024, with repairs expected to be completed by mid-2025 and full ramp-up by the end of 2025. Additionally, the start of Indonesia's Amman smelter and the DRC’s Kamoa-Kakula smelter have been delayed, but once operational, will impact concentrate availability and reshape trade flows from Q3 2025 onwards.