US President, Donald Trump, has implemented 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminium entering the USA, effective from 12 March. Since the country relies on imports for its domestic requirements, both for steel and aluminium, the short-term impact would be the rising risk of a trade war, higher inflation and a stronger US dollar.

The USA is a structural net steel importer with steel imports averaging about 34Mt over the past five years as well as 34Mt in 2024, while exports averaged 28Mt for the same period and 29Mt in 2024.Combined trade from Canada and Mexico accounted for 37% of US steel imports and 44% of steel exports in 2024, largely due to the integrated nature of North American supply chains and the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) for automotive but also construction, energy and machinery.

The USA's structural net importing status is due to its insufficient steelmaking production capacity, especially for certain high-grade or specialised steels, its lack of competitiveness and the fact that the US steel industry is primarily based on electric arc furnaces (EAF) and cannot always produce the higher quality steel products made through blast furnaces.

The USA also relies on imports for its aluminium requirements. Its imports of unwrought aluminium averaged 4Mtpy over the past five years, while the USA's estimated primary aluminium production is ~700kt. Since 1980, the industry has been in decline from a production peak of 5Mt, partly because of environmental regulations, high energy prices, and foreign competition. As of today, only a few smelters remain operational, and most are old and less efficient compared to international standards. Most of the USA's unwrought aluminium imports come from Canada the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Bahrain.

In January, Donald Trump threatened to impose a 25% tariff for all goods imported from Canada and Mexico, a threat which was postponed by one month. These tariffs would be a violation of the USMCA free trade agreement, signed in 2018, which replaced NAFTA. The implications of these tariffs will translate into concerns over rising inflation, keeping US interest rates higher and the US dollar stronger. The move will also likely initiate some kind of retaliation from other countries, primarily Canada.

Although the tariffs aim at protecting and reviving the USA's steel and aluminium domestic industries, Project Blue is sceptical about their effectiveness. The USA's domestic production is still insufficient to match demand, and building aluminium smelters or steel furnaces takes time. One positive factor could be for recycling, especially in the aluminium sector, by increasing its cost competitiveness. But, overall, the US consumer is likely to pay most of the bill.