On April 30, 2025, the United States and Ukraine signed a landmark agreement to create the United States–Ukraine Reconstruction Investment Fund, a joint initiative aimed at developing Ukraine’s critical mineral sector and supporting long-term post-war recovery.

The agreement follows months of complex negotiations, including a failed attempt in February due to concerns that earlier terms overly favoured US interests and lacked adequate security guarantees for Kyiv.

The revised deal addresses those concerns by emphasizing a balanced partnership, without obligating Ukraine to repay prior US military assistance.

Project Blue understands the key provisions of the agreement to be as follows:

- Joint Investment Fund: Co-managed by both nations with equal voting rights, the fund will support projects involving critical minerals, oil, and gas.

- Revenue Sharing: Ukraine will allocate 50% of revenues from new extraction licenses to the fund. The US may contribute through direct funding or future military support.

- Resource Sovereignty: Ukraine retains full ownership and control of its natural resources, including state-owned firms such as Ukrnafta and Energoatom.

- EU Alignment: The agreement aligns with Ukraine’s EU accession goals, ensuring compatibility with European legal and regulatory standards.

US officials reportedly view the deal as a demonstration of enduring support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and economic recovery, while also securing future access to strategic raw materials essential to sectors such as energy, defence, and clean technology.

Ukrainian leaders have welcomed the agreement as a vital step toward attracting foreign investment and rebuilding the country’s industrial base amidst ongoing conflict.

While the agreement sets a framework for collaboration, the actual development of Ukraine's mineral resources will face challenges due to ongoing security concerns and the need for substantial investment.

While Ukraine has mineral potential for various critical materials (e.g. REEs or graphite) its future very uncertain – which doesn’t bode well for investment in projects which can take decades to finance, develop, and commission even in stable jurisdictions.

Project Blue notes that the terms of the deal appear to be forward-looking, targeting the development of new resource projects while leaving existing mining operations unaffected.

Thus, Ukraine’s existing operations for critical materials including silicon, manganese, graphite, aluminium, and titanium may not be impacted by the terms of the deal – although in many cases re-investment will be needed once the conflict stops.

Whether this agreement and related activity translates into tangible investment and development for existing assets or new deposits, will depend not only on political will and funding, but on the pace of stabilisation in Ukraine.