The Republic of Guinea (Guinea) has initiated the process of revoking Emirates Global Aluminium’s (EGA’s) bauxite mining license which could reshape the global bauxite industry, should it officially come into effect.

The proceedings follow the suspension of bauxite mining operations and exports at Global Alumina Corporation (GAC), a subsidiary of EGA, in October 2024 due to disputes with the Guinean Government over customs duties. GAC operates the GAC Mine, which is one of the largest bauxite mines in Guinea. Recently, however, production has been impacted for the first time since the mine was commissioned in 2019. Output declined by 22% y-o-y in 2024, falling from 14.8Mt in 2023. The suspension had a noticeable impact on trade, leading to a 7% q-o-q decline in Guinean bauxite exports in Q4 2024. The restriction in supply subsequently resulted in a considerable price increase, with bauxite prices climbing 42% y-o-y in December 2024.

This development not only impacts EGA’s vertical integration in the aluminium industry, given that the Al Taweelah alumina refinery in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) partially relies on bauxite from its GAC mine, but it also has wider implications for the global aluminium market. A potential tightening of Guinean seaborne supply could again push prices higher for alumina, which in turn would affect the aluminium industry.

Guinea's intention to revoke EGA’s bauxite mining license signals a shift towards increasing its revenue and asserting more control over its mineral resources. To complement these efforts, Guinea must also focus on enhancing its refining capabilities to produce alumina to ensure these efforts yield measurable outcomes for its domestic bauxite and alumina industries.