Interest in ex-China gallium production has risen amid increasing geopolitical tensions over critical material supply and IP controls in semiconductor equipment and products.

In early June, ERG announced its intention to produce 12tpy Ga in Q4 2026 at its Pavlodar Alumina Plant in Kazakhstan, utilising red mud waste (also referred to as red sludge).

ERG offered interested European consumers off-sell contracts over a long-term period of at least five years. Agreements, at the time of the announcement, had yet to be concluded. It was later revealed on 24 June that ERG would allocate US$20M to produce gallium metal at the Pavlodar plant, increasing its estimated production volume to 15tpy Ga.

ERG is one of the few ex-China producers to announce plans to produce gallium to supply the resource-starved Western market. Chinese export controls have focused on dual-use items (for military and consumer use), severely limiting supply availability. Some regular consumers such as those in Japan and Germany have resumed normal trade patterns, although, this remains limited.

The uptake of gallium in NdFeB magnets and new compound semiconductor technology (GaN, GaAs, Ga2O3) in electric vehicles (EV) has rapidly shifted the market from 400tpy of primary production to around 850tpy over a five-year period, in line with rising demand.

Rising global EV sales and penetration will support continued demand growth. With Chinese export controls in place, ex-China consumers have struggled to source material. Projects being developed by companies including ERG, Rio Tinto, METLEN, and Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) will provide an alternative to Chinese material, offering diversified supply chains for consumers.