The following is an excerpt from the new Secondary Copper Industries - World Ex-China report, commissioned by the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) and produced by Project Blue.

The full report is available from the ICSG via their website.

Copper is becoming increasingly acknowledged as a critical material, whether included on official lists or not.

Demand growth is fuelled by both established uses and emerging technologies, reflecting a global shift toward data, analytics, and interconnectivity. And within this expanding trend, the secondary copper industry is expected to become a bigger part of the story.

Recycling is already an essential part of the copper industry, taking on an increasingly important role in the supply chain as primary supply growth faces headwinds. We estimate that secondary copper production represented 37% of world refined copper supply in 2024 and will likely rise going forward.

In the world ex-China, we have identified 18 new secondary projects being constructed across all geographies, which could increase secondary production by over 50% by 2030.

Brownfield expansions naturally have lower capital intensity and operational risks than greenfield projects. However, the growing number of national policies around the world encouraging the development of domestic recycling industries is driving secondary project development in new jurisdictions.

Scrap, also known as secondary feed, is thus evolving into a highly competitive landscape for the copper industry. Not only is there increased demand for scrap from growing secondary production capacity, but also from primary smelters, fabricators and foil mills.

In recent years, prices have reflected this market environment, with higher copper prices drawing more stocks of scrap onto the market, a demand trend also validated by declining TC/RCs.

Secondary feed can come in many forms, from high-grade, nearly pure copper to mixed streams such as e-scrap (electronic scrap). And e-scrap is viewed as the biggest opportunity by the secondary copper industry, as only 22% is estimated as being recycled currently. There is also support from regulators attempting to encourage or enforce greater levels of electronics recycling.

Naturally, to build out the secondary copper industry, which is not only driven by policy directives around ‘minimum recycled content’ but also needed from a fundamental copper market perspective, secondary feed should flow smoothly from producer to consumer.

As interest in the secondary copper market grows, we anticipate the establishment of more standardised terms alongside ongoing industry consolidation.