Project Blue presented at the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) Meeting held at its headquarters in Lisbon, Portugal, on 7 October 2025. The copper team shared its findings from an ICSG-commissioned study on secondary copper smelting and refining in the World ex-China.

Our analysis highlighted that secondary copper capacity in the World ex-China is projected to grow at a CAGR of 3.8% between 2024 and 2030 to reach 5.8Mt by 2030. This growth will be supported by rising demand for recycled copper, stronger circular economy policies, and advances in refining technology.

With recycling representing a vital part of the copper industry, supplementing primary supply whilst supporting decarbonisation, the topic drew strong interest from delegates. Secondary production is increasingly seen as a key lever to improve supply security and reduce market volatility.

The ICSG also presented its copper production and usage forecasts for 2025/2026, along with indicative projections for 2027. Global mine output between January and July 2025 rose by 2.8% (around 370kt Cu), supported by project ramp-ups and improved performance at existing operations.

However, the meeting highlighted the impact of major supply disruptions, including at Grasberg in Indonesia (approximately 260kt Cu loss), Kamoa-Kakula in the DRC (-155kt Cu), and El Teniente in Chile (-30kt Cu). These incidents at key concentrate operations underline the fragility of primary supply. Despite moderate output growth, concentrate availability remains tight, and Project Blue expects refined production to fall short of demand in 2025. The concentration of risk among a few large mines could constrain supply growth through 2026, particularly at Grasberg and Kamoa-Kakula.

Overall, the meeting provided valuable insights into both the short-term dynamics of mine supply and the longer-term role of recycling in supporting sustainable copper production. Strengthening secondary refined capacity, which is expected to account for around 21% of global refined output by 2035, will be vital to ensuring supply security and advancing a low-carbon copper industry.