Teck Resources (Teck) updated its operational outlook for the Quebrada Blanca (QB) mine in Chile, lowering production guidance for 2025 and the coming years. The revision follows a series of supply disruptions that continue to tighten the copper concentrate market.

Following its Comprehensive Operations Review and QB Action Plan, Teck identified the tailings management facility (TMF) as the major bottleneck at QB. The slow pace of TMF development and poor drainage caused by fine particles are constraining throughput, forcing periodic concentrator shutdowns to manage tailings rise.

This has made the TMF the key limitation on operations, reducing output, increasing costs, and requiring additional capital spending. Teck expects the issue to be resolved by 2027, with output rising gradually as TMF performance improves.

As a result, Teck has revised its production guidance to 170-190kt from 210-230kt in 2025, 200-235kt from 280-310kt in 2026 and 240-275kt from 280-310kt in 2027.

In 2028, copper production at QB is expected to be impacted by mining in a lower-grade area of the pit, which would likely also lower production to 220-255kt from 270-300kt. Molybdenum production will also be reduced in line with lower copper production. Teck now expects that its QB net cash C1 costs for 2025 will range US$2.65–$3.00/lb vs US$2.25–$2.45/lb previously.

Teck also revised down guidance for copper production at its Highland Valley Copper (HVC) mine, Canada, due to lower grades and ‘reduced mill online time’ due to unplanned maintenance. Output is now put at 120–130kt (from 135–150kt) in 2025 and 115–135kt (from 130–150kt) in 2026 but raised to 135-155kt from 120-140kt in 2027.

Meanwhile, Anglo American reaffirmed its full support for Teck’s updated plan, stating that the review’s findings align with its due diligence and do not alter the strategic rationale for their merger.

These downgrades come after a series of supply disruptions, the latest being a deadly mud landslide at the Freeport’s Grasberg mine, Indonesia, in September. This is expected to cut production by about 260kt in 2025 and by a further 270kt in 2026. Other supply disruptions include the seismic event that caused flooding at the DRC’s Kamoa-Kakula in May (-155kt) and a tunnel collapse at Chile’s El Teniente mine in July (-30kt), all at major concentrate operations.

Whilst disruptions are compounding an already tight market, prices are likely to remain volatile with upside risk. Supply factors will continue to remain the key drivers.