Over two years since Myanmar’s Wa State Economic Planning Committee (EPC) halted tin mining and processing at Man Maw, the supply squeeze continues to keep prices high.

The EPC announced tin mining and processing suspension plans in April 2023, which were implemented four months later, in August. As is usual in commodity markets, in anticipation of the production stoppages, Myanmar’s tin ore and concentrate shipments to China surged by 86% y-o-y between May and July 2023; surprisingly, tin prices decreased by 1.3% before production ceased.

The production halt was expected to be lifted by February 2024; however, this did not happen. By April 2024, surface stockpiles in Myanmar, which could still be exported, had fallen to critically low levels. Over 2024, tin raw material exports to China fell to 76.4kt (gross), dropping by 58% y-o-y.

Although China managed to increase refined tin output by 7% in 2024 by consuming domestic stockpiles and secondary sources, the market ultimately shifted to a deficit. In April 2024, LME cash prices broke above the US$30,000/t mark and have remained at these levels thus far in 2025, 15% above the real 15-year average.

In March 2025, the EPC announced plans to lift the mining suspension with immediate effect, likely driven by elevated prices and the need to support the domestic economy. However, operators were forced to apply for new licences at sharply elevated fees.

The restart was, therefore, much slower than expected; nevertheless, by mid-July, larger operators reportedly accepted the terms whilst smaller players exited. Whilst this may indicate some relief for the concentrate market in 2026, the smaller pool of producers in Myanmar increases the risk of prolonged supply tightness, particularly if further policy changes emerge.

Although mine supply grew in Australia, the DRC, Nigeria, Peru, and Rwanda, it failed to offset Myanmar’s shortfall. The market remains exposed, underscoring the urgent need for existing producers to ensure sustainable output and for new suppliers to step in.