Apple’s new iPhone 15 Pro was unveiled with a titanium alloy shell.

China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association (CNIA) estimates that as much as 10kt titanium metal demand could be added by the new iPhones using a Grade 5 titanium alloy, which contains 6% aluminium and 4% vanadium.

Titanium has a high strength-to-weight ratio, allowing it to deliver about the same level of strength as stainless steel at 40% of the weight, making it critical in lightweighting in corrosive and high-strength applications. The metal has long vied to gain market share from stainless steel, but the cost of titanium has been its major barrier for mass market applications.

Titanium metal demand is mainly driven by aerospace and chemical applications. Availability of the refined metal is in surplus since demand from aerospace applicatios was knocked down in consecutive years by a decline in aircraft orders in 2019 due to the grounding of the Boeing Max following two fatal crashes, and COVID-19 pandemic lockdowns effectively shutting down air travel for long periods of time.

According to Project Blue data, portable electronics account for less than 2% of total titanium metal demand, a number slightly higher at present due to a still recovering aerospace sector. CNIA’s estimate of titanium used in the new iPhone would see portable electronics more than triple its market share. With aerospace demand only forecast to recover to 2018 levels by 2025, the titanium supply chain is in a position to support a short-term 10kt burst in demand. However, the full impacts of the Russian war in Ukraine are yet to yield constraints in the titanium supply chain, and recovering demand in aerospace together with new applications could force the issue.

Longer term, the main growth market for titanium metal is expected to come from aerospace (on top of its recovery trend) and will far outpace demand by Apple’s new titanium shell. Therefore, the aerospace industry is expected to remain the key driver for the overall market dynamics. However, more substitution of stainless steel applications could quickly translate to significant demand volumes as a potential upside if the supply chain can accommodate a competitive material.