It has been reporting season and the copper majors have largely pointed to improved production statistics. 

Anglo American's copper output increased by 2% y-o-y in H1 2024, totalling 394kt. This modest growth reflects lower throughput at its Chilean Los Bronces mine, partially offset by higher throughput at the Collahuasi and El Soldado mines. Production at its Peruvian Quellaveco mine, decreased by 4% to 75kt. The production guidance for 2024 remains unchanged, averaging 760kt.

Antofagasta experienced a 4% y-o-y decline, with its output falling to 285kt. The decrease was due to lower production at Centinela concentrates, partly offset by higher production at Centinela cathodes and Los Pelambres. The total production for 2024 is expected to be at the lower end of the company’s 670–710 kt guidance range.

BHP's FY 2024 output increased by 9% y-o-y to 1,865kt, underpinned by the highest production levels in four years at the Escondida mine and another year of record results from the Spence mine. The growth was supported by operational improvements, debottlenecking initiatives, and favourable ore grades. Copper production for FY 2025 is expected to be between 1,845-2,045kt.

Codelco recorded an 8% y-o-y decline, with output falling to 580kt compared to 633kt in H1 2023, citing operational setbacks and difficult weather. The company attributed the lower output to a shutdown at the Radomiro Tomic mine following a fatal accident, reduced contributions from the El Teniente mine due to a rock burst last year, ramp-up delays for Rajo Inca, and adverse weather. Despite these challenges, Codelco expects its FY2024 output to exceed the 1.3Mt produced in 2023, with a forecasted range of up to 1.4Mt as output is anticipated to recover in H2 2024.

Freeport-McMoRan’s copper output rose by 4% y-o-y to 963kt. This was largely driven by surging production from its Grasberg mine in Indonesia. Due to higher ore grades and increased milling rates, output at Grasberg climbed by 27% y-o-y, reaching 423kt.

Rio Tinto recorded a 12% y-o-y increase for H1 2024, with output rising to 293kt. The growth was driven by improved production results at the Kennecott, Escondida, and Oyu Tolgoi mines, which saw y-o-y increases of 18%, 9%, and 15%, respectively.

Southern Copper's copper output rose by 7% y-o-y in H1 2024, reaching 452kt. The increase was primarily due to higher ore grades at the Toquepala mine, which significantly boosted production.

Teck Resources saw a substantial 39% y-o-y increase, reaching 381kt in H1 2024. The significant growth was driven by the ramp-up of production at the Quebrada Blanca Phase 2 project.

Overall, most companies reported increases in copper output for H1 2024, with notable production growth from Teck Resources and Rio Tinto, driven by improvements in both mine development and operational performance. In contrast, Antofagasta and Codelco experienced declines due to challenges at Centinela and various setbacks at Codelco's mines.

Despite these positive trends and the alignment of increased copper output with our estimates, our FY 2024 production forecast has been slightly reduced to reflect anticipated challenges in the latter half of the year. Nonetheless, a steady supply is expected for the remainder of 2024, supported by ongoing operational improvements and ramp-ups in key projects.