The results of the PEA indicate an annual net revenue averaging US$470M for the sale of high-purity scandium oxide, scandium-aluminium master alloy and REE hydroxide concentrate, over a projected operational life of 25 years. Project Blue, however, notes that the scandium oxide price assumption used is higher than today's level. Following the PEA, the next step for Imperial includes a drilling programme intended to improve mineral resource estimates.

Scandium is a silvery-white, non-toxic transition metal, often associated with REEs. Primary, hardrock scandium mining is scarce, with most material produced as a by-product or recovered from tailings. The world’s major producers are Canada, China, Japan, and Russia. Output in Canada and China is based on REE, and titanium/zirconium wastes; production in Japan from nickel laterite (from the Philippines) processing; and Russian material from alumina waste.

The limited supply of scandium consequently supports a small global market, relative to most other metals, with China positioned as the leading producer. Despite the lack of a stable supply, there is a notable amount of research focusing on the metal’s high electrical conductivity, lightweight and thermal stabilization properties. While the current primary use of scandium is in solid oxide fuel cells (SOFCs) it’s also used in the defence, aerospace, and automotive industries, in the form of aluminium-scandium alloys.

The extent to which the scandium market could see notable future growth often divides opinion. Certainly, scandium’s existing applications have growth potential within an energy transition context, given the importance of light-weighting in aerospace and EVs, and given the increased demand for clean energy technologies, like SOFCs. However, whatever the “growth potential”, the market remains small: Project Blue puts it at about 15tpy of scandium oxide.

Some argue that to stimulate demand, more supply is needed. The argument goes that without a cost-effective and stable supply, scandium is unlikely to see any widespread practical use. This remains to be seen.

Ensuring stable supply is complex, in addition to the processing difficulty associated with scandium, manufacturers are hesitant to incorporate scandium alloys in their designs without a stable and sustainable supply already in place. Nonetheless, there has been a slew of new scandium discoveries and projects that could potentially mark the beginnings of a stable market, supported by interest from major mining companies like Rio Tinto and Rusal that have entered the scandium industry recently.

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