Production rose in October in China (+2.9% y-o-y), in the European Union (EU) (+5.7%), in Latin America (+7.2%) and in the Middle East (+5.4%). 

For the first ten months of the year, the EU posted a 2.1% y-o-y increase, led by France and Germany with respective 8.8% and 5% increases. Other countries displaying higher steel output include Turkey (+12.4%), Brazil (6%), India (5.6%), Vietnam (16.1%) and Ukraine, from a low base with 25.7%.Production dropped in the USA (-1.9%), the UK (-23.9%) on the back of Port Talbot furnaces closures, Mexico (-16.1%), China (-3%), Japan (-3.7%) and Korea (-6.4%).  

Overall, crude steel production in the world ex-China declined 2.4% in October and was flat during the first ten months of the year. Steel production in China dropped by 3% y-o-y, in line with the weak construction sector and depressed property market. Production of long products was particularly impacted, with a 14.7% drop in rebar output between January and October. The weak domestic demand has been mitigated by strong exports which rose 23.3% y-o-y to 91.9Mt. The main growth in exports came from Southeast Asia (+26% y-o-y), the Middle East and Africa (+22%) as well as Latin America (+18%). Steel exports to Europe only increased moderately (+4%) while exports to North America dropped by 7%. In terms of total volumes, combined exports to Southeast Asia, Middle East and Africa accounted for nearly 60%.  

Flat steel production in the world ex-China reflects the globally subdued macro environment, particularly in Europe and in Japan.  

The 2025 outlook for steel production is uncertain, given the recent political developments and the trade disruption risks related to higher tariffs. In China, we believe that the property market is about to stabilise with some modest recovery possible in the second part of 2025. Meanwhile, we also believe that exports will be lower, due to rising tariffs. Project Blue forecasts Chinese crude steel production at 1,008Mt in 2024, dropping below the 1Bnt mark in 2025 depending on how the domestic economy performs.  

In the rest of the world, any upside remains limited to a select number of countries such as Turkey, Indiaand Vietnam, while the scope for recovery in Europe and Japan remains low. Steel production in the USA could increase moderately, in line with the relatively strong economy.  

China’s economic indicators, including steel production, are key market drivers for steelmaking materials but also for a wide range of ferroalloys, including ferrovanadium, ferromolybdenum, ferromanganese or ferrosilicon. They will also be determinant in 2025.