China’s export restrictions on antimony, gallium, germanium and graphite will have differing impacts.

Gallium and germanium trade to the USA has been throttled since August 2023, when China’s Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) started to enforce export restrictions on eight items related to gallium and six items related to germanium in order to “safeguard national security interests”.  

As can be seen on the chart, there have been no exports of germanium between China and the USA in 2024. Meanwhile, exports to Germany, Russia and Belgium have broadly returned to normal in 2024.  

There has also been minimal trade in gallium between China and the USA, with exports to the Netherlands also affected.    

Trade to Japan and Germany has returned to normal.  

In summary, US consumers have already been scrambling for new supply options in 2024 and so the bans don’t change the situation.   

Nevertheless, the ban is symbolic, and this latest news removes any potential for China-US trade in these critical semiconductor materials resuming any time soon.