In the release of its Q4 2024 activities report, Lynas Rare Earths stated that production of rare earths across the company’s facilities had fallen 3.8% compared to Q3 2024, with production of Nd-Pr oxide falling by 23% from the previous quarter.

The quarterly production volumes were impacted by a requirement to process mixed rare earth carbonate (MREC) from Lynas’ newly commissioned Kalgoorlie cracking and leaching (C&L) facility in Australia, after processing limits for lanthanide mineral concentrate processing were reached at the Lynas Advanced Material Plant (LAMP) in Malaysia during November. Impurities in the MREC from the Kalgoorlie C&L facility required additional processing of feedstocks, which resulted in delays in sourcing necessary reagents throughout much of December.

Prices for key rare earth products remained subdued in Q4 2024, with Nd-Pr, Lynas’ key target product averaging US$57.75/kg EXW China in Q4 2024 compared to US$68.17/kg EXW China in Q4 2023. Oversupply within the domestic Chinese market, coupled with a lack of Chinese stimulus packages to support demand growth both impacted pricing throughout 2024. The lack of other sizable markets for Nd-Pr oxide outside of China and Japan currently provides few alternative customers for Lynas to leverage. Lynas’ planned expansion into the USA at Seadrift in Texas, designed to provide an alternative processing route for the Kalgoorlie C&L plant’s output, continues to be delayed by legislative challenges related to wastewater management which are being worked through with the US Department of Defense.

In 2025, Project Blue forecasts that many of the same headwinds felt in Q4 2024 will persist within the rare earth market, with demand growth in China slowing without further stimulus and alternative markets for rare earth products in the rest of world still largely in development. Lower rare earth prices for key magnet products such as Nd-Pr, terbium and dysprosium oxides, remains a slowing influence on project development and expansions at existing rare earth operations.