First Quantum Minerals has been cleared to begin shipping out stockpiled copper at Cobre Panama, which could be seen as an indication that authorities may be willing to negotiate a restart of the stalled mine.

Panama’s President Mulino announced that he had authorised the export of "ground material," referring to the copper concentrate that has been stockpiled since the mine’s shut down in late 2023, following protests over alleged environmental concerns. Mulino also ordered the restart of a power plant necessary to operate the Punta Rincon port, which will facilitate the export of this material. These stockpiles are estimated at about 120kt Cu-in-concentrate. The President said he would review the mine’s future more broadly as soon as next week.

Cobre Panama is a significant asset for the copper industry. The mine has a theoretical production capacity of 300–350ktpy Cu-in-concentrate, equivalent to about 1% of the world’s total production. It is especially relevant in the current context of copper concentrate tightness, with production in Chile and Peru levelling off. Cobre Panama is also essential for Panama as its output accounted for about 5% of the country’s GDP in 2023 and employed more than 30,000 workers equivalent to ~2.3% of Panama’s workforce. Cobre Panama was also important for First Quantum. The US$10Bn mine generated about 40% of the group’s revenues in 2022.

However, the Cobre Panama issue remains politically sensitive. President Mulino, elected in 2024, has taken a cautious approach. Allowing the export of stockpiled concentrate serves as a test of public opinion without having to commit regarding the mine’s future status. But Panama needs Cobre Panama even more than the copper market does. Eventually, a compromise will be found. The question is when and on what basis.