The Ministry of Commerce announced the suspension of Section 2 of Announcement No. 46 (2024), which imposed export controls on dual-use items to the USA. The suspension will remain in effect until 27 November 2026. This decision covers export restrictions on gallium, germanium, antimony, super-hard materials, and graphite.

Over the past two years, China has steadily tightened its grip on certain critical material exports. In August 2023, trade in gallium and germanium to the USA was restricted after the Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) imposed export controls on eight gallium- and six germanium-related products “to safeguard national security.” In August 2024, MOFCOM extended controls to antimony ore, metal, and oxides, effective 15 September. Then, in December 2024, China went further, announcing a full export ban on antimony, gallium, germanium, and graphite, reinforcing its tighter management of strategic materials.

While China banned exports of gallium and germanium to the USA in December 2024, shipments had already slowed as exporters struggled to obtain licences. The removal of the ban does not end these licensing requirements—permits are still needed, can take up to 90 days to secure, and may be revoked due to non-compliance.

In 2025, China’s total gallium exports remain lower year-on-year, while ex-China prices have soared. Shipments to Japan and Germany have largely normalised at reduced volumes, while US germanium imports from China have plunged from 11t in 2023 to 3.5t in 2024 and just 1.3t by July 2025.

Ex-China consumers remain heavily reliant on Chinese supply. China dominates primary gallium production (99% of the market in 2025) and is also responsible for an estimated 70% of global refined germanium production.

In response, the USA and allied partners have announced new gallium and germanium projects to reduce supply-chain risk. The most notable gallium projects are those of Alcoa, which aims to install a 100tpy production line at its Wagerup alumina refinery in Australia, backed by US and Australian government investment, and Rio Tinto, which is developing a 40tpy recovery circuit at its Saguenay–Lac-Saint-Jean alumina refinery in Canada, following pilot production at Vaudreuil in May 2025. Meanwhile, Lockheed Martin and Korea Zinc, under a US-brokered MoU, plan to build a 10tpy germanium plant at Korea Zinc’s Onsan smelter.

However, new ex-China capacity will take time to develop. Given long lead times and China’s entrenched dominance, these markets will remain China-centric for some time to come. Domestic germanium prices in China are likely to ease amid ample supply, while gallium prices should remain stable given only minimal exports to the USA.

For antimony, the ban highlighted two different supply chain dependencies for the USA and EU, while the more niche supply chains also suffered under record prices.

The USA is only a minor importer of antimony metal, but it is crucially reliant on imports of antimony trioxide, totalling 17–23ktpy, the majority of which still came from China in 2024. The USA responded to the ban with several key advancements, including Perpetua advancing its mine in Idaho with a planned restart in 2028 and United States Antimony Corporation breaking ground on an expansion at its Thompson Falls facility in Montana, while also restarting mining at its old mining sites adjacent to the plant. These may remain crucial for the dual-use restrictions and for the US Department of War (DoW) to secure military-use supply chains; however, without more downstream capacity, this new supply will fall significantly short of much of the commercial demand in the USA.

The EU is the largest producer of antimony trioxide (ATO) outside China through Campine in Belgium and AMG in France. The production of ATO makes the region reliant on antimony metal imports as the feedstock to maintain ATO output. Both companies have diversified away from Chinese ingot over the last decade, with only minor volumes still imported from China. Following the ban, the companies increased ATO sales to the USA and have looked to expand capacity, which would require additional metal units.

Project Blue’s Antimony Market Service tracks asset-level metal production, indicating that new capacity in SE Asia has ramped up sufficiently and could support increased ATO production outside China. However, these are all majority Chinese-owned assets, which restricts their products from entering US DoW supply chains.

The suspension of the ban will enable producers in China to access the international market using export licences. Up until now, suppliers in China have faced weak domestic demand and have suspended operations to help drive up domestic prices, while they have been unable to access high-value markets elsewhere. However, domestic prices in the Chinese market have continued to decline, despite the mine and refinery suspensions. Back in September 2024, 11 Chinese companies received export licences for ATO exports, with licences being restricted to the largest producers.

Licences for high-purity dual-use supply chains are expected to continue being denied due to the requirement for strict end-use and consumer reviews. This means that Chinese ATO producers will now actively seek ingot supply to support export opportunities, which will filter rising demand through to concentrate supply. Stockpiles across the value chain are thought to be low; therefore, we expect a relatively rapid reaction in market sentiment. Domestic China prices are expected to react upwards as Chinese stakeholders gain access to the >2x multiple ex-China market.

This development should simultaneously accelerate a drawdown in EU and US prices from their record highs and reduce premia, although we expect a premium to be maintained for the time being.

Project Blue’s data indicates that a recovery in the Chinese antimony supply chain will bring industry focus back to the mine feedstock supply bottleneck, which is currently being balanced by record volumes from operations in Myanmar. With the industry still facing a structural issue regarding concentrate supply in a growing market (attributed to solar demand), Project Blue forecasts antimony prices to remain elevated above historical norms; nevertheless, prices are expected to fall back from their current prolonged highs.