The growth in stainless steel production worldwide was supported by China's production of stainless steel, while global production without China decreased by 7.1% year-on-year. The USA saw the largest decline of 9.6% with a tight US market underpinned by high interest rates and money policy tightening.

Chinese stainless steel production increased by 12.6% y-on-y to reach over 36.6Mt. However, in the fourth quarter, production decreased 9.8%. This was mainly due to high inventories of stainless steel against unmet consumption. The supply surplus caused prices of stainless steel to decrease, leading to losses for mills. Consequently, year-end strategic maintenance and output reductions were implemented to address the issue.

China’s increased production had a significant impact on the drawdown of chromium ore port stocks, which remained at their all-time lowest. This supported higher tender prices for ferrochrome producers, however, with downward pressure from the upstream stainless steel industry. It is still expected that Chinese stainless steel production for 2024 will see an increase, as consumption is expected to rise by 4.1% this year.

European stainless steel production declined for a second consecutive year, falling back to levels last seen during the global financial crisis in 2009, due to weak macroeconomic conditions and an extended period of destocking by producers. In Q1 2024, European stainless manufacturers have been faced with many hurdles promoting the growth of the stainless sector: In January, Outokumpu, Europe's largest stainless steel manufacturer announced plans to reduce its ferrochrome production, citing a sluggish stainless steel market in Europe. In March, a political strike at the Finnish plant impacted supply as the majority of the ferrochrome and stainless steel operations had been shut down. Along with a similar strike occurring in Spain, the European stainless steel sector is likely to experience a third year of contraction and supply shortages.

Despite the ongoing political uncertainties, Project Blue estimates that global stainless steel production will increase by 3.5%. Production in the USA is expected to rise gradually, in line with the economic recovery and infrastructure development. Outside of China, India is expected to become the largest contributor to the growth forecast of 2024, as it starts adopting stainless steel as part of its growth ambitions. The demand for stainless steel in India from consumer goods and the process industry is expected to grow between 7-9% over the next year, and domestic mills have begun to add new capacity in an effort to curb reliance on Chinese stainless steel imports.

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